Santa Maria, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

828
FXUS66 KLOX 070645
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1145 PM PDT Sun Oct 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...06/218 PM.

Hot conditions will continue over the valleys and mountains into
Tuesday, the hottest will be today and Monday. Widespread cooling
is expected Tuesday through Friday. Low clouds will continue to
moderate along the coast, with dense fog and low visibilities at
times.

&&

.SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)...06/803 PM.

***UPDATE***

Latest satellite and surface observations indicate stratus/fog
across the coastal plain with clear skies elsewhere. Current
sounding data indicates marine inversion remains quite shallow,
under 1000 feet in depth. No significant winds are observed.

For the immediate short term, main issues will continue to be the
marine layer stratus. Overnight, H5 heights decrease a little bit
while onshore gradients will be quite weak (with some offshore
trends). So, think these competing factors will cancel each other
out and inversion depth will not change much at all. So, low
clouds and fog will continue to impact the coastal plain, but not
extend too far inland. Given the shallow nature of the inversion,
patchy dense fog will continue to be an issue. Other than the
stratus and fog, no significant weather issues are anticipated
overnight.

Overall, current forecast has good handle on the immediate short
term. So, no significant updates are expected.

***From Previous Discussion***

Heatwave continues away from the coast.

A strong marine layer was noted on the soundings this morning
with almost a 20C temperature inversion at KVBG and keeping in
place but a little weaker tonight into Monday. Nonetheless this
scenario with the hot airmass inland will continue to keep the
immediate coastline locked in with the marine layer environment
and much more temperate conditions, but also the impact of very
low clouds and fog will likely reappear after dark tonight.

Very warm to hot conditions are persisting for the inland areas,
including across the valleys, mountains, and deserts. The heatwave
will continue in earnest for these areas away from the coast, with
the hottest conditions yet to occur on Monday. Excessively hot
conditions will be an impact for anyone in grueling outdoor
conditions and those without adequate ventilation and air-
conditioning, and an excessive heat warning remains in place for
inland areas as well as heat advisories for San Luis Obispo valley
locations closer to the coast.

Probabilities remain moderate to high for a number of record high
temperatures once again today and Monday for inland and valley
areas.

Look for 4 to 8 degrees of cooling on Tuesday. A weak, saggy and
dry trof will move over the area and will lower hgts to between
582 and 584 dam. The onshore flow in the afternoon will also
increase a little bit. The coastal marine layer clouds will
persist in the morning but with the capping inversion weakened by
the cooler air aloft there should be good clearing in the
afternoon.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...06/238 PM.

Slow cooling trend beyond Monday and especially for later in the
week as the very strong high pressure ridge overhead slowly
weakens across the southwest. By Wednesday and through the
remainder of the week, a slow moving upper level trough will
develop along the coast of Central and Southern California,
persisting into next weekend, with temperatures falling to near-
normal, with a chance that some areas will also fall to slightly
below normal temperatures for inland locations by the end of the
week and next weekend. Ensemble forecasts are generating low
forecaster confidence on the timing of the trough off the
southwest coast and some solutions bring a closed low across
NorCal and into the Central portion of the state by next Sunday.
Again though forecaster confidence is low on any potential
impacts in particular with these forecasts for now. The ensemble
mean forecasts mainly show a slow warm up beyond the end of the
week for our region.

&&

.AVIATION...07/0644Z.

Due to a data outage, current marine layer depth and inversion
height data is not available for KLAX.

High confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD, and KWJF.
There is a 10% chance for brief LIFR conds at KBUR/KVNY between
10Z and 16Z.

Low confidence in TAFs for KSBP and KSMX. There is a 40 percent
chc of no low clouds. If clouds do arrive their arrival time could
be off by as much as two hours.

Moderate confidence in remaining coastal TAFs. Minimum flight cat
may bounce between VLIFR and LIFR thru 18Z. Arrival/clearing of
cigs may be off +/- 2 hours from current TAF.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. VIS will likely vary frequently
but cigs will hold from 002 to 004. There is a 25 percent chc of
RVR 800 values. There is a 30 percent chc that 3SM BR OVC005
conds will arrive at 23Z. No significant east wind component
expected.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF with only a 10% chance for 1/4SM FG
VV002 conds 11Z-16Z.

&&

.MARINE...06/803 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Through Monday morning, high confidence in winds and
seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. For Monday
afternoon through Friday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level
winds. Additionally, there is a 20-30% chance of Gale force winds
Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Monday, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For
Tuesday through Friday there is a 40-60% chance of SCA level winds
in the afternoon and evening hours.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. For most of the southern Inner
Waters, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA
levels through Friday. The only exception will be the western half
of the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 20-30% chance of SCA
level winds Thursday and Friday during the late afternoon and
evening hours.

A shallow marine layer will continue to generate patchy to areas
of dense fog across portions of the coastal waters through at
least Monday morning, especially in the overnight through morning
hours. Visibilities of one nautical mile or less can be expected.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect until 8 PM PDT
      Monday for zones
      38-88-342>345-351>353-356>358-369>376-378>380-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM PDT Monday for
      zones 341-348. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Dense Fog Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Monday for zones
      349-350-354-355-362. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JMB/Thompson
AVIATION...rORKE
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...JMB

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox